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Every afternoon five o'clock Charles is having tea at his mother's.
In order to start the conversation he keeps saying either "I think it's raining" ou " I think it isn't raining ".
He is mistaken once out of three when it is raining, and once out of two when it is not raining nine time out of ten.
this afternoon , just after Big Ben rang five , he said : " I think it's raining".
Calculate the probability it is actually raining.